Wednesday, April 30, 2008

URLs for Statistics

CPI:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

US Dollar Index:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Durable Goods Order:
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

GDP:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Home sales:
http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/44ee9300498ba8e88bfbabe6426faec1/REL0803EHS.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=44ee9300498ba8e88bfbabe6426faec1&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc&CACHEID=f631900049892cc0b166b1e86053e3bc

Housing Starts:
http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

Industrial Production:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/

Business Inventories:
http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/current.html

Change in Leading Indicator:
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1

Personal Income:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
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Effect of economic data on rates

http://www.farrismortgage.com/whyrateschange.html

Effect of economic data on rates

Number of arrows indicates potential effect on interest rates. 1 arrow=least effect, 5 arrows=max. effect

Economic Event Effect on
Interest Rates		 Significance of event
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Rises Interest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwards Indicates rising inflation.
Dollar Rises Interest rates move down Imports cost less; indicates falling inflation.
Durable Goods Orders Increase Interest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwards Indicates expanding economy
Gross National Product Increases Interest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwards Indicates strong economy
Home Sales Increase Interest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwards Indicates strong economy
Housing Starts Rise Interest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwards Indicates strong economy
Industrial Production Rises Interest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwards Indicates strong economy
Business Inventories Rise Interest rates move downInterest rates move downInterest rates move down Indicates weak economy
Leading Indicators (LEI) Increase Interest rates move upwardInterest rates move upwardInterest rates move upward Indicates strong economy
Personal Income Rises Interest rates move upward Indicates rising inflation
Personal Spending Rises Interest rates move upward Indicates rising inflation
Producer Price Index Rises Interest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwardsInterest rates move upwards Indicates rising inflation
Retail Sales Increase Interest rates move upwardInterest rates move upward Indicates strong economy
Treasury Auction Has High Demand Interest rates move down High demand leads to lower rates
Unemployment Rises Interest rates move downInterest rates move downInterest rates move downInterest rates move downInterest rates move down Indicates weak economy
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jumboMortgage rates: why still not low ?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/30jumbo.html?partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss

....

Members of Congress and people in the mortgage-backed securities industry remain optimistic about the new rules. They say it is too soon to declare success or failure. Relief, they insist, remains around the corner. They argue that the credit market that fuels home ownership must be given time to adapt to rule changes that affect billions in potential loans.

This month, Freddie Mac, one of the two main government-chartered companies (along with Fannie Mae) that helps the housing market by purchasing loans in bulk from lenders, said that over the next year, it would buy up to $15 billion of the jumbo loans. That change and others that may follow, optimists argue, could lead to more loans and bring down interest rates.

...

Freddie Mac estimates the new rules could encourage $40 billion or more in loans by year’s end, which it estimates could finance new mortgages or mortgage refinancings for 50,000 or more borrowers.

....

The reason has to do with the way loans are sold and securitized. Conforming loans carry a lower interest rate in part because lenders can package and sell those loans as mortgage-backed securities directly to either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or to private investors who know that the housing finance agencies can buy them later. And some of those loans can be sold even before they are finalized because they qualify for the “to be announced” market that allows fixed-rate mortgage-backed securities to be traded freely as interchangeable commodities.

An influential trade group of the nation’s largest financial institutions, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, recently made a key decision that some critics say has kept those rates from dropping. The association decided that loans above $417,000 — even those jumbo loans now considered by law as conforming — would not be eligible to participate in the “to be announced” market.

Sean Davy, a managing director at the trade association, said that lumping the new loans in with the smaller conforming ones could have created enough uncertainty and instability to drive up rates on the conventional loans.

....

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